Do Exploratory Drilling
We are usually digging mines not building bridges. So drill for value: pilot and road test key components. Do proofs of concepts but make them add value.
Learn from doing, is the value where you thought it was?
Learn from Using, walk in the users shoes.
Learn from the battlefield development
Maximise Bayesian Conditional probability of victory, Reconnaissance by fire, Maximise Early Value, this balances, and compliments, the Bias to Act. This allows for planning from experience and this minimises estimation risk.