Forget probably when assessing risk. It is impact that matters.
Taleb’s Black Swans. Shuttle O-rings.
Black Swans are Real,
Plan from Experience,
Cover and Move
The iterative/pilot-based approach minimise high-impact risks. Loss of key staff, given the small team, is the biggest risk to the plan.
The implementation of will provide best working estimates of the effort and time required to deliver the extensions in other regions.
The As-Is model will remain in place while the target model is developed and deployed. Only after verification will the switch over be made.